A GLOOMY FUTURE AHEAD?

In his column in Expressen Ulf Nilsson paints a gloomy picture of the future. He points to the North Korean bomb (whether they have it today or tomorrow), virtually impossible to prevent due to the countless South Korean lives it would cost (and countless of lost soldiers for the invader for that matter). And, of course, he also points to the Iranian bomb, which would give the clerics in Teheran a chance to fatally wound Israel. And with madmen like that in possession of nuclear weapons it wouldn't last long before we see the first terrorist attack using the bomb.

Unfortunatly Mr Nilsson's worries aren't as easy to dispel as one would like. The nuclear ambitions of Iran are obvious and there's no easy solution to it. An Iraq-style invasion is highly unrealistic - the Iranian army is strong and well trained and will not be defeated easily. The cost in American lives (because it is only the Americans who would be strong enough to even contemplate such a move) would be unacceptable, as would the number of Iranian deaths. Bombing the nuclear research centres would be very impopular, especially in Europe, and successfully doing so requires good intelligence. Getting the regime in Teheran to abandon their programme through negotiations seems utterly unlikely - even if a deal could be struck it would only be honored as long as the cost for not honoring it is high enough.

In the end I think the bombing strategy will prove to be necessary. Success is far from certain and the cost in international relations will be high, perhaps too high for the US to act. Europe will want to continue their negotiations to the bitter end, and perhaps Israel - who can't afford to risk an Iranian a-bomb - will be forced to act. Apart from the direct consequences that may make a peace with the Palestinians vastly more difficult.

Dealing with Kim Jong-Il in North Korea will be even harder. Co-operation among the Western countries will be needed to maintain a hard line, and the support of China will be crucial. But not necessarily enough. Kim Jong-Il knows he sits on most of the big cards - a military intervention is virtually impossible and overall the toolbox is rather empty.

Solutions will have to be found or we may quickly find ourselves in a pretty scary place. What they are, or where they are to be found I don't know. Hopefully someone does.

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